Particularly photogenic haboob that traveled around 200 miles across the Sonoran Desert. 149-mile-long EF4 tornado that killed 10 people. It followed an EF4 tornado from the same supercell, and was followed from behind by an even longer-tracked EF3 tornado ongoing simultaneously from a different supercell. Particularly photogenic and long-lived EF3 tornado with an EF2 satellite tornado. Updrafts tended to be skinny. EF3 wedge tornado, particularly long-tracked, wide, and at an early time of day for the area. Part of the 2011 Super Outbreak. I get it. I call this worst-case scenario bias. By the way, a few weeks ago my family had to rush to the basement because of a Doppler radar-indicated tornado. Two tornadoes, the first a particularly photogenic EF4, and the second an EF3 wedge tornado with winds measured by mobile radar to be over 200 mph. DEBRIS WAS OBSERVED IN THE ASSOCIATED RADAR . Sign Up A sequence of tornadoes, including two at one time, emerged from a compact supercell that passed just to the west of Oklahoma City. Particularly cyclic supercell that produced several tornadoes, up to EF2, in rapid succession. Right on the dot at 1 am, they did it: a high risk with some of the most aggressive and serious wording Id ever seen. Theres a constant breeze. The wind shear was very impressive, as was the rotational potential conveyed in those low-level winds. However from a human toll perspective, I say So what? The messaging forced people to act and hazardous severe weather (and flooding often overlooked) happened. . A new study entitled Cry wolf effect? It is this that leads me to continue to head out to the plains each year in hopes that I'll get to take in Mother Nature's most explosive scenery. November 15, 2005: Madisonville, Kentucky, April 2, 2006: Marmaduke, Arkansas / Caruthersville, Missouri, March 28, 2007: Silverton / Jericho, Texas, April 24, 2007: Eagle Pass, Texas / Piedras Negras, CH, Mexico, June 23, 2007: Pipestone, Manitoba, Canada, February 5, 2008: Atkins / Clinton, Arkansas, February 5, 2008: Jackson and Clifton, Tennessee, August 7, 2010: Tyler, North Dakota / Doran, Minnesota, December 31, 2010: Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri, April 27, 2011: Philadelphia, Mississippi, April 27, 2011: Hackleburg & Smithville, Alabama, April 27, 2011: Tuscaloosa / Birmingham, Alabama, May 24, 2011: El Reno / Piedmont, Oklahoma, May 24, 2011: Chickasha / Newcastle, Oklahoma, May 19, 2012: Kingman / Harper Counties, Kansas, February 10, 2013: Hattiesburg, Mississippi, May 19, 2013: Lake Thunderbird / Shawnee, Oklahoma, April 27, 2014: Mayflower / Vilonia, Arkansas, May 18, 2014: Wright / Newcastle, Wyoming, April 9, 2015: Rochelle / Fairdale, Illinois, May 6, 2015: Amber / Bridge Creek / Norman, Oklahoma, June 5, 2015: Anton / Cope / Kirk, Colorado, June 22, 2015: Woodhaven Lakes / Sublette, Illinois, July 13, 2015: Nickerson / Hutchinson, Kansas, November 16, 2015: Plains, Kansas and Pampa, Texas, December 23, 2015: Holly Springs, Mississippi, May 9, 2016: Katie / Wynnewood / Sulphur, Oklahoma, May 24, 2016: Minneola / Dodge City, Kansas, June 2, 2017: Three Hills, Alberta, Canada, July 12, 2017: Mayville/ Buxton, North Dakota, June 28, 2018: Capitol, Montana / Camp Crook, South Dakota, July 8, 2018: Interstate 8 / Southwest Arizona, July 19, 2018: Bondurant, Marshalltown, and Pella, Iowa, September 21, 2018: Dunrobin / Gatineau / Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, October 2, 2018: Conneautville, Pennsylvania, December 1, 2018: Havana and Taylorville, Illinois, May 23, 2019: Canadian, Texas / Laverne, Oklahoma, September 10, 2019: Guernsey / Lingle, Wyoming, September 29, 2019: Champaign County, Illinois, March 2, 2020: Nashville / Cookeville, Tennessee, April 12, 2020: Bassfield / Soso, Mississippi, April 22, 2020: Madill / Springer, Oklahoma, August 7, 2020: Virden / Scarth, Manitoba, Canada, March 25, 2021: Greensboro / Centreville, Alabama, April 27, 2021: Truscott / Benjamin / Electra, Texas, June 10, 2021: Sidney, Montana / Alexander, North Dakota, July 14, 2021: Jewell Junction / Stanhope, Iowa, August 11, 2021: Mineral Point, Wisconsin, September 1, 2021: Mullica Hill, New Jersey, December 10, 2021: Monette, Arkansas / Mayfield, Kentucky, March 21, 2022: Round Rock & Elgin, Texas, March 22, 2022: New OrleansArabi, Louisiana, April 21, 2022: Rush Center & Offerle, Kansas, November 4, 2022: Clarksville, Texas Idabel, Oklahoma, a local outbreak in and around the Texas panhandle, series of particularly photogenic tornadoes, Pair of particularly photogenic tornadoes. Your email address will not be published. Several tornadoes produced by a cluster of cyclic supercells in rapid succession. Tornado outbreaks just feel different than other chase days. It was on the ground for 20 miles and left devastation a half-mile wide. May 22, 2008: Windsor, Colorado EF3 wedge tornado, particularly long-tracked, wide, and at an early time of day for the area. There was such a heightened sense of alert about the storms on Monday that many businesses, schools, and government agencies in Oklahoma closed. Supercell that produced a large wedge EF3 tornado before acquiring a particularly photogenic mothership structure. Meteorologists seemed awestruck at the tornado outbreaks potential, using terms such as nightmare scenario and a rare kind of event that may take many lives. And a horde of storm chasers converged on Oklahoma, with some hoping the day would bring the chase of a lifetime. Looking for inspiration? Such aerosols, which are not incorporated in traditional weather models, may affect the amount of heat absorbed or reflected at various heights and/or the microscale cloud physics driving the storms. Particularly photogenic low-precipitation barberpole supercell. As bust was making it around social media, tornadoes, hail, and intense rainfall were still on the table for many people, and they needed to remain alert. Oklahoma saw three noteworthy tornado events, apparently none of which produced serious injuries: One twister passed very near the town of Mangum in southwest Oklahoma, destroying several outbuildings and homes. But it was more than enough to get both my father and I hooked for life. From a meteorological perspective, was it a bust? Multi-vortex tornado, known for chasing storm chasers, that went on to become a long-lived EF3. There were 14 billion-dollar disasters in 2019, making it the fifth consecutive year with at least 10 billion-dollar disasters. The tornado itself was examined by multiple mobile dopplers, each measuring extremely strong rotational velocities in the tornado just above the surface. Now a quick scientific opinion: to me, every weather forecast should be formulated and communicated probabilistically using multiple models and model runs (re: ensemble models) in order to best understand the full spectrum of possible outcomes that a particular event might span. We knew all along that these storms wouldnt be the real show, so we didnt worry too much. There are five levels of severe weather risk issued by the SPC, the details of which can be seen below. March 11, 2019, 9:20 PM Tornado wreaks havoc in northern Michigan community. Photogenic and dusty tornado that weaved through a field of wind turbines. But at the same time, it left behind a sense of false alarm, ire that schools were needlessly shut down and a desire to better understand the sometimes fickle nature of weather prediction. Even so, the storm remained discrete and we just couldnt leave it in favor of other storms when it was in that environment. Earlier this week the Great Plains experienced severe weather. 3-6 hours difference is what saved Oklahoma today. On Monday May 20th, I personally watched tornado polygons illuminate my weather radar screen much of the day. Particularly photogenic tornadoes, part of a cold core tornado outbreak across eastern CO and western KS. Ive experienced this on a few occasions; May 24th, 2011 and May 31st, 2013 immediately come to mind. Our weather forecasts continue to improve as our technology and understand advance but tornado forecasting is still hard. Indeed, as I was monitoring weather maps across the threat area, these factors did appear to materialize. Widest and strongest recorded tornado on Earth, at 2.6 miles wide and 302 mph winds measured by mobile radar, that exhibited particularly erratic motion and killed 8 people, including storm chasers and 3 members of the TWISTEX research team. Monday's #HighRisk #severe forecast wasn't as dire as expected. EF2 tornado, part of an outbreak of tornadoes across north-central IL into OH. may 20, 2019 tornado bustview from my seat theatreview from my seat theatre Nearly 2.5-hour duration EF3 tornado from high-precipitation supercell, the longest-tracked tornado recorded in Wisconsin. This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%. 5/20/19: Tornado Outlook, Watch, Warning and Preliminary Reports Summary. Even considering that event, May 20th, 2019 seemed like a different animal altogether. It just didnt make sense. Long-lived EF3 tornado (though measured by mobile radar to be stronger) from a high-precipitation supercell. Tornado (cyclic) May 20, 2019: Mangum, Oklahoma: Tornado (EF2, wedge, hp) May 22, 2019: Jefferson City, Missouri: Part of a High Risk event regarded by some as a Recovery is ongoing. According to a report on CNNs website, At least 19 tornadoes swept through central Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri and Arkansas Monday, carrying warnings of considerable damage to homes, businesses and vehicles with the possibility of complete destruction.. Since I started chasing, I've seen a host of significant tornado events, including the 2011 Joplin EF5 and the 2013 El Reno EF3 (El Reno was an EF5), amongst many others. Massive cold front-driven haboob that lasted over 2 hours and traveled 100 miles. Certain artifacts are inevitable. The abstract says that very high and very low false alarm rates led to inferior decision making, but that lowering the false alarm rate slightly did not significantly affect compliance or decision quality. These results are counter to previous studies that linked cry wolf with non-compliance to warnings. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that became the third widest on record at 2.25 miles, and killed 8 people. Two of 10 tornadoes produced by a cyclic supercell, part of an event with an eastern extent and intensity that was largely a surprise.. (624 Miles) May 12, 2022 - 80-90 MPH Straight line winds in a fast moving Derecho near Huron, SD (1585 Miles) High-precipitation, cyclic supercell that produced multiple weak tornadoes. What came out next blew us away: 45% hatched tornado probability from the Texas Panhandle extending east into Oklahoma. Preliminary reports of tornadoes (red Ts), thunderstorm wind damage or high winds (blue Ws) and large hail (green Hs) by day from May 17-May 27, 2019. Long-tracked EF4 tornado that killed 3 people as part of the largest November IL tornado outbreak on record. Family of photogenic tornadoes, with twins at times. Truncated cone tornado rated EF2 that damaged a gas plant. Around the same time, the storm inexplicably began to shrivel up. EF3 tornado from a cyclic and high-precipitation supercell that produced 8 tornadoes across southeast NE during a Mothers Day tornado event. Chaotic supercell that produced several weak tornadoes, some simultaneous, including a large wedge. At the time of this writing, we are planning to head out next week to chase with fellow H&H chasers Travis and John. Yet, the word forecast bust started creeping into the narrative of our insular meteorology community. Oklahoma City, OKNorman, OKLawton, OKEdmond, OKMidwest City, OK Tulsa, OKWichita Falls, TXBroken Arrow, OKEnid, OKMuskogee, OK Lubbock, TXAbilene, TXFort Smith, ARFayetteville, ARSpringdale, AR Dallas, TXFort Worth, TXBoston, MAArlington, TXWichita, KS New York, NYPhiladelphia, PABaltimore, MDWashington, DCKansas City, MO Oklahoma City, OKTulsa, OKLubbock, TXAmarillo, TXAbilene, TX Oklahoma City, OKNorman, OKEdmond, OKMidwest City, OKMoore, OK Lawton, OKStillwater, OKShawnee, OKDuncan, OKAda, OK Dallas, TXFort Worth, TXArlington, TXPlano, TXGarland, TX Colorado Springs, COWichita, KSWorcester, MASpringfield, MASpringfield, MO Oklahoma City, OKTulsa, OKAbilene, TXNorman, OKWichita Falls, TX Lubbock, TXAmarillo, TXMidland, TXOdessa, TXSan Angelo, TX Fort Worth, TXBoston, MAWichita, KSProvidence, RIWorcester, MA New York, NYPhiladelphia, PADallas, TXBaltimore, MDWashington, DC Oklahoma City, OKTulsa, OKNorman, OKWichita Falls, TXLawton, OK Lubbock, TXAmarillo, TXAbilene, TXMidland, TXOdessa, TX Dallas, TXFort Worth, TXArlington, TXWichita, KSPlano, TX New York, NYPhiladelphia, PABaltimore, MDBoston, MAWashington, DC Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table, May 20, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. The event highly resembled, at least in HRRR model space, high-impact Dixie Alley events where strong to violent tornadoes are more common than anywhere else in the world. But the feared phalanx of violent tornadoes never materialized. Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. EF3 tornado, part of an outbreak of tornadoes across OK and AR. This statement is not particularly unusual at this time of the year. . Aside from the occasional burst of wind and clap of thunder, we don't exactly get much in the way of interesting severe weather. Long-tracked, EF4 tornado that killed 11 people as part of a large-scale tornado outbreak across the Ohio Valley. Prolific cyclic and nearly stationary high-precipitation supercell that produced several tornadoes, including an EF3 wedge; this was a largely surprise event. A new study entitled Cry wolf effect? For educational use. He spent many years at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and is the author of The Thinking Persons Guide to Climate Change and Weather on the Air: A History of Broadcast Meteorology.. The tornado outbreak sequence of May 2019 was a prolonged series of destructive tornadoes and tornado outbreaks affecting the United States over the course of nearly two weeks, producing a total of 400 tornadoes, including 53 significant events (EF2+). EF3 tornado that killed 6 people. In the latter of the two, the feel was absolutely undeniable. Part of an outbreak of particularly photogenic nocturnal tornadoes, unprecedented for the time of year for the area. We recognize our responsibility to use data and technology for good. Even having seen a significant tornado only moments before, this seemed incomprehensible. Photogenic supercell that produced a few tornadoes. May 18, 2019. Infamous EF5 tornado that killed 24 people. May 23rd, 2019. It had the feel. A derecho that damaged over 850,000 acres of crops across eastern IA and destroyed over 1,000 homes in Cedar Rapids alone, where a gust of 126 mph was recorded nearby. It even smells different, although Im not quite sure I can put my finger on what thats about. It was time for a tire change (safety first, and tires are a priority), so we took care of that in the morning before we departed on the chase.